How might tourism be affected?
Tourism is both vulnerable to climate change impacts and contributes to climate change by its high levels of GHG emissions.
Interactions between tourism and climate change have, to date, been subject to little investigation and predicting the impact of global warming on tourism in Victoria is difficult at best. In this context, three important factors that need to be considered are:
- the magnitude of climate change in each month/season of the year;
- the impact of these climate changes on the characteristics of Victoria that attract visitors in the first place; and
- the differential effect of temperature changes in Victoria relative to the rest of Australia.
Globally, it is projected that climate change will not lead to a net loss in demand for leisure tourism. A loss of demand for a given destination, or type of destination, may well lead to increases in demand for alternative destinations. Whether a net environmental gain or loss results from such changes will partly depend on the ability of the tourism industry to raise its sustainability and by the degree that climate influences travel behaviour to a particularly tourist destination.
Based on the limited available research, climate change is likely to pose a profound challenge in some Victorian tourism destinations, while providing opportunities in others. These challenges and opportunities include:
- Higher temperatures will present opportunities for extended peak and shoulder seasons and resulting increased tourism expenditure;
- Snow sports in Victoria will be increasingly at risk from shorter seasons and even more unreliable snow cover;
- The potential impacts on ecosystems could affect the natural beauty of certain destinations with distinctive landscapes;
- Pressure of increased tourism on key coastal tourist destinations, as result of an extended peak season; and
- Increased risks of bushfires, drought and other natural disasters could threaten the future viability of many tourist destinations and businesses.
As governments around the world develop and implement plans to address climate change, one of the main risks for individual tourism businesses will be increased energy costs. While businesses with large emissions are likely to face regulations at both the state and federal levels, smaller tourism businesses will also be indirectly affected by the rising costs of inputs like electricity and fuel, and costs related to transportation. Greenhouse gas emissions will become a cost of doing business.
Other increases may include rising insurance premiums, more expensive raw materials and supplies, and higher production costs, such as transportation.
As the climate changes, there are increasing risks of blackouts, damage to property and inventory from floods and high winds resulting from extreme weather events.
Another risk for tourism businesses is customer preference. Customers are becoming increasingly aware of the impacts of climate change and, in light of this, they may favour businesses that are environmentally sensitive and that help customers reduce costs. Thus, risks can become opportunities for businesses that are addressing climate change.
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